Key Takeaways
- ARK Invest believes Bitcoin could hit $1.5 million by 2030 in its most optimistic scenario.
- The forecast hinges on growing institutional demand and Bitcoin’s role as a store of value in emerging markets.
- Strike CEO Jack Mallers sees BTC reaching between $250,000 and $1 million as traditional finance continues to falter.
ARK Invest’s latest Big Ideas 2025 report puts Bitcoin’s (BTC) potential price ceiling at a staggering $1.5 million by the decade’s end.
But like all long-term projections, it comes with a heavy dose of “if.”
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Bitcoin Price Targets and Methodology
Cathie Wood’s fund laid out three scenarios:
- Bear case: $300,000
- Base case: $710,000
- Bull case: $1.5 million
These targets are based on assumptions regarding the total addressable markets (TAMs), penetration rates, and other factors such as Bitcoin’s supply schedule.
The price targets depend on Bitcoin’s growth and adoption across various sectors, including institutional investments, emerging market adoption, and its role as digital gold.
Risks and limitations may prevent these forecasts from being realized, especially if the TAMs or penetration rates fall short of expectations.
“Digital gold contributes the most to our bear and base cases,” ARK wrote. “Institutional investment drives our bull case.”
Still, ARK notes that other areas—like corporate treasuries and sovereign holdings—play a surprisingly small role in these models.
Where the Numbers Come From
ARK bases its projections on a range of total addressable markets (TAMs) and penetration assumptions:
- Institutional Investment: Global market portfolios, excluding gold, are projected to have a TAM of $200 trillion by 2030, with bitcoin penetration rates ranging from 1% in the bear case to 6.5% in the bull case.
- Digital Gold: Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value, similar to gold, could result in a TAM of $18 trillion, with penetration rates of 20% to 60% across different cases.
- Emerging Market Safe Haven: Bitcoin’s role as a haven for investors in emerging markets could see it tapping into a $68 trillion market by 2030, with penetration rates ranging from 0.5% to 6%.
- Nation-State Treasuries: National governments, including the U.S., are increasingly adopting bitcoin, with a TAM of $15 trillion for global treasury reserves, assuming penetration rates of up to 7%.
These contributors are modeled with different assumptions for each scenario, impacting the expected value and adoption of Bitcoin over time.
Each segment plays a different role in the bear, base, and bull cases, highlighting the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s future potential across various markets and applications.
Jack Mallers: Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million
Strike founder Jack Mallers is also betting big on Bitcoin’s upside.
In a recent appearance, he suggested BTC could climb to anywhere between $250,000 and $1 million, driven not by hype, but by dysfunction in the broader financial system.
He pointed to repeated central bank interventions, arguing they’ve masked volatility and distorted market signals.
Mallers also highlighted the bond market’s instability as a key signal of dysfunction within traditional finance. In contrast, Bitcoin‘s decentralized nature makes it a unique hedge against the fragility of these systems.
With the ongoing market instability, Mallers sees Bitcoin as a haven for capital, positioning it as a long-term solution for those seeking transparency and protection from the growing risks in traditional markets.
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