Key Takeaways
- Toncoin may have completed a long corrective structure.
- RSI supports continuation after minor consolidation.
- Breakout targets align with key Fibonacci retracements.
Toncoin has recently completed a significant corrective phase, and the price action now points to a potential impulsive recovery.
Technical structures on both higher and lower timeframes align with a possible bottom formation and the start of a new bullish cycle.
This analysis uses daily and hourly charts to assess the situation and project realistic price targets based on Fibonacci levels and Elliott Wave Theory.
TON Price Analysis
Toncoin has been in a macro downtrend since its all-time high near $8.28, completing what appears to be a W-X-Y complex corrective pattern.
The last leg of the correction concluded near the $2.68 level, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement from the broader move and forming strong support.
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This area also acted as a bounce zone during previous cycle lows, now forming a double bottom.
The recent breakout from the descending channel suggests the end of the bear phase.
From the $4.12 high, the price decreased but maintained a higher low of $2.80 before showing bullish signs again.
The price is now challenging the $3.10 resistance level.
A daily close above $3.88 (0.618 Fib retracement of the last downtrend) would be a strong bullish confirmation, potentially triggering a move toward the $4.12–$4.72 range — a confluence of historical resistance and the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
Volume has picked up slightly, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising but still far from overbought, supporting more upside.
TON Price Prediction
The 1-hour chart shows a clean (a)-(b)-(c) corrective move bottoming around April 16, completing a flat correction.
Since then, Toncoin has broken out of a bullish falling wedge, which commonly signals the start of a new impulse wave.
The current price action resembles the early stages of wave (i) of a larger impulse, with strong upward momentum pushing TON to $3.11.
Before continuation, a minor correction may follow in the $2.95–$3.00 region.
If this new impulse wave plays out, targets lie at $3.88 (0.618 Fib), $4.12 (former support-turned-resistance), and eventually the $4.72–$5.56 zone.
This aligns with the 0.5 and 0.382 retracement levels of the broader decline.
RSI on the hourly timeframe is now near 80, indicating short-term overheating.
Thus, a pullback or consolidation would be healthy before any further leg up.
The breakout level at $2.88 now serves as strong support, and as long as TON stays above this, the bullish thesis remains intact.
Key Levels to Watch
- Major Support: $2.68 (0.786 Fib), $2.88 (breakout level).
- Immediate Resistance: $3.88 (0.618 Fib), $4.12 (horizontal resistance), $4.72 (0.5 Fib).
- Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above $3.88 on strong volume.
- Invalidation Level: Drop below $2.68 would invalidate bullish count.
- Fractal Watch Zone: $5.56–$6.60 (historical resistance and 0.382/0.236 Fibs).
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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