Rising welterweight contenders Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates will clash to determine who moves closer to a title shot at UFC Fight Night on Saturday at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri (9 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+).
Machado Garry, No. 7 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, enters the fight following the first loss of his professional career against Shavkat Rakhmonov in December. Prates, unranked by ESPN, has knocked out each of his last 10 opponents.
Brett Okamoto spoke to retired UFC welterweight and MMA analyst Alan Jouban to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Alan Jouban’s main event analysis
How Machado Garry wins: He will be the much faster and slicker guy. One thing I’ve noticed about Machado is that he is flamboyant on the mic, but he’s not afraid to let the crowd boo a “boring” fight. He’s always willing to reset his positioning, and that’s why he doesn’t get caught in bad spots. As soon as he feels like his back is against the cage in a bad position, he’ll reset with lateral movement. So that’s his key: Be willing to reset this fight and utilize that speed and range.
How Prates wins: Prates is so difficult to deal with because he has a short torso and very long arms, which makes him deceptive. You see a guy the same height as you, so you set up in a normal range. Then all of a sudden you’re getting hit by these “go-go gadget” arms. That said, Prates still needs to corral you. Prates is the typical southpaw fighter. I see a lot of UFC Hall of Famer Anderson Silva in him. He looks to hold his opponent in a stationary position, and throw the left-side weapons. He’s got to be able to corral Machado Garry, who is terrific at circling away, even at the expense of making a fight boring. Don’t be surprised if Prates is challenged to stuff takedown attempts from Machado Garry, too.
X factor: The movement. Can Prates execute that Silva-like game plan and keep Machado Garry stationary, where Prates can unload on him?
Prediction: I think Machado Garry’s movement is a little too much for Prates. He’s too quick and too slick.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Over 2.5 rounds. Prates’ first UFC main event will come against a top contender in Machado Garry. As impressive as Prates has been in his first four UFC fights, he has never fought someone as skilled as Machado Garry. Even in the loss to Rakhmonov at UFC 310, Machado Garry defended nearly every takedown attempt and kept the fight on the feet.
He needs to fight from the outside and stay away from the power of Prates. If Machado Garry wins, it will either be by decision or late KO/TKO, if Prates starts to gas out. (Prates’ stamina in the later rounds is a question mark, because none of his UFC fights have made it beyond Round 2.) Prates carries serious power, which is concerning for Machado Garry, but Prates has shown tremendous patience to wait to find the right opportunities. I think this fight will see the start of Round 4, so take over 2.5 rounds.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Featherweight: Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama
Chikadze to win (+140). This could end up being the fight of the night. Onama has tremendous knockout power and durability, which has earned him this fight against Chikadze. After a seven-fight winning streak was derailed at the hands of Calvin Kattar, Chikadze has lost two of his last three fights. If he can keep this fight standing, strike from distance, avoid Onama’s power and stay off his back, Chikadze is a live underdog who can win this fight.
Middleweight: Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov
Pereira to win (-140). After dropping back-to-back fights, Magomedov has bounced back with a pair of wins. He is a fast starter and showed improved cardio in his last two fights. However, if he can’t control Pereira on the ground for 15 minutes, I don’t see how he wins this fight.
Pereira is known to have a wild fighting style, but he’s honed in and found more control lately, which has led him to an eight-fight winning streak. In his last fight, he rocked Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez early but got outhustled the remainder of the fight. Fortunately for him, Magomedov is not as good a wrestler as Hernandez, nor does he have the cardio nor pace. Look for Periera to keep this fight standing and win on the feet.
Strawweight: Jaqueline Amorim vs. Polyana Viana
Amorim to win (-950), under 2.5 rounds (-260). Coming off back-to-back losses by finish, Viana is likely fighting to keep her spot on the UFC roster. Outside of an armbar or catching Amorim with a knockout strike, this feels like a disaster matchup for Viana. The second this fight hits the mat, Amorim will make quick work of her. Amorim is one of the world’s best jiu jitsu practitioners and has finished her last three UFC opponents.Take Amorim to win and under 2.5 rounds to get a playable number. If you want to get more specific, pick Amorim to win by submission.
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