Fantasy baseball bullpen stock watch: Devin Williams deserves a little faith

Fantasy baseball bullpen stock watch: Devin Williams deserves a little faith

There’s a good reason why New York Yankees RHP Devin Williams was among the first relief pitchers selected in your fantasy league. Williams entered the 2025 season with a career 1.83 ERA and was among the active leaders in strikeout rate. If healthy, he figured to pile on the saves for a top team looking to return to the World Series.

Last season, over the final two months, Williams posted a 1.25 ERA and saved 14 games in 15 chances for the Milwaukee Brewers. He had missed the first four months due to back fractures. The Yankees acquired him this winter and fantasy managers could not wait to invest.

However, barely three weeks into this season, some fantasy managers already have moved on and Williams is among the most-dropped closers in the sport — down to just 86.6% rostered in ESPN leagues as of Tuesday morning. It was a weird week. Williams earned drama-free saves on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday of last week (though he fanned only one of 11 hitters) and all looked to be well again following a three-run outing on April 9 in Detroit that had bloated his ERA.

Then, this past Saturday, Williams blew a four-run lead against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays won in extra innings. However, one had to see the performance to react properly. This was not like Philadelphia Phillies RHP Jordan Romano permitting two massive home runs and six runs to the weak Miami Marlins on Saturday. Williams allowed a pair of infield singles, a Chandler Simpson opposite-field, pop-fly double hit at 71 mph and a Brandon Lowe mini-blooper to center field to score two runs. This was not that bad. Nothing was hit 100 mph.

Neither Yankees fans nor fantasy managers should be panicking too much with Williams, as a .423 BABIP is telling the story. He’s been unlucky. Right-handed batters won’t hit .438 off him (with a .539 BABIP!) for long. Only six relievers and one closer boast a higher overall BABIP, and Cleveland Guardians RHP Emmanuel Clase (.487 BABIP) should be fine as well. Yankees RHP Luke Weaver — with nary a run permitted to his ledger — has an unsustainable .091 BABIP. Yankees RHP Mark Leiter Jr. has a .188 mark. These figures should normalize over time.

Williams (and Clase) may not be perfect over the final five months of the season, but fantasy managers should keep investing.

Stock rising

Jeff Hoffman, Toronto Blue Jays: Hoffman saved a pair of wins last week, making him a perfect 5-for-5 in opportunities, with 16 overall strikeouts and only one walk through 11 1/3 innings. We also like that he earned a pair of wins across multi-inning performances. Some fantasy managers faded Hoffman because the Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves both passed on the former Phillies right-hander this past winter due to shoulder concerns on his physical. Perhaps those fears will resume later this season, but for now, we’ve got a thriving top-10 closer.

Kyle Finnegan, Washington Nationals: Few would bestow many top-10 closer thoughts Finnegan’s way, but this right-hander continues to pile on the saves, with eight of them coming over his past eight outings. Isn’t that what we want in fantasy? Sure, we would love more strikeouts and better run prevention, but Finnegan is off to a fine start in those respects, too. In past seasons, he earned saves despite disappointing peripherals. Perhaps you cared or perhaps you did not. Perhaps this is his breakout season. He remains available in more than 50% of ESPN standard formats.

Justin Martinez, Arizona Diamondbacks: Martinez has done little wrong this season, tossing seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against only one walk, but he enters this week with only two saves. That is because Martinez had been sharing the ninth inning with LHP A.J. Puk. Well, Puk (elbow) hit the IL on Sunday, so Martinez, down to 66% rostered in ESPN leagues, should see more — if not all — of the team’s save chances moving forward. If he continues to show the best control of his career, he may be a top-10 fantasy closer.

Jose Alvarado, Philadelphia Phillies: Somewhat similarly to Martinez, the thriving Alvarado is averaging 100 mph with his fastball and is avoiding walks, but the narrative in his team’s bullpen has adjusted. He is now the closer. Alvarado was called on for a one-pitch save Saturday, after Romano suffered a career-worst performance. Then the other Phillies relievers in the “trust tree,” LHP Matt Strahm and RHP Orion Kerkering, combined to lose on Sunday while Alvarado delivered another efficient, scoreless inning. Perhaps he has months of saves coming his way and will become the first Phillies reliever to register 30 saves since the very forgettable Jeanmar Gomez (2016).

Justin Slaten, Boston Red Sox: Slaten saved Monday’s win over the Chicago White Sox, his third of the young season and second in three appearances. It was also the sixth consecutive outing in which he permitted nary a baserunner. This is all good news, but none of it guarantees Slaten sails past 20 saves. LHP Aroldis Chapman boasts more saves, a better strikeout rate and, because it does matter to most every manager, a history of successfully doing this. Chapman pitched in the high-leverage eighth inning on Monday against the top of the lineup, permitting an Andrew Benintendi home run. This is a “save timeshare,” but even that makes Slaten undervalued. Do not expect RHP Liam Hendriks to handle ninth-inning work soon.

Stock falling

Felix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles: Bautista is among the most-dropped closers in ESPN leagues because he has only two saves through three weeks and nobody enjoys a 1.67 WHIP. Still, the Orioles are handling Bautista carefully — as they promised they would — while he returns from a lost 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. He has yet to pitch on consecutive days. He has yet to really find his control after a dominating 2023 campaign, walking six in six innings. Be patient. No other Orioles reliever boasts saves. Expecting a 1.48 ERA and 110 strikeouts (as he gave you in 2023) was always unrealistic.

Lucas Erceg, Kansas City Royals: Erceg has pitched well. The lone run on his ledger came Friday night, when a Riley Greene line drive smacked his left foot and forced his exit — and that inherited runner scored. Assuming Erceg raises his strikeout rate, he should continue to pile on the holds and remain one of the top setup men in the league, but it may not be enough to supplant the veteran Carlos Estevez for saves, which surely was part of the preseason appeal.

Alexis Diaz, Cincinnati Reds: Well, he’s back in the majors, but things are really not improving. Diaz faced nine Marlins on Monday. He retired just four of them, but permitted three hits, including a Kyle Stowers home run along with two stolen bases, a walk and, yes, he also hit a fellow. RHP Tony Santillan is probably the best reliever in this Cincinnati bullpen, but whether that means he gets the saves over Emilio Pagan, Graham Ashcraft or Diaz is another matter. It just doesn’t seem like Diaz is close to earning a shot.

Multiple Minnesota Twins relievers: Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran and Cole Sands (in that order) finished among the top-50 relief pitchers in ESPN standard points leagues last season. Jax averaged 4.3 fantasy points per outing, so even though Duran saved 23 games, Jax had the better run prevention and strikeout rate and he scored more points. This season, the Twins are among the noteworthy surprise disappointments, winning just seven of 22 games. Other than Jax, with his bloated 11.25 ERA and 2.13 WHIP, the bullpen has pitched fine. However, Duran has the only save. That’s the problem. If the Twins can’t win more than they lose — they do play the White Sox again this week — it depresses the value of all their relievers. Move on from Jax, but not Duran — at least not yet.


Source link

Oh hi there 👋
It’s nice to meet you.

Sign up to receive awesome content in your inbox, every week.

We don’t spam! Read our privacy policy for more info.

More From Author

Sources: Browns, Giants field trade calls for picks

Sources: Browns, Giants field trade calls for picks

European Central Bank’s Lagarde says she hopes Trump doesn’t fire Fed’s Powell

European Central Bank’s Lagarde says she hopes Trump doesn’t fire Fed’s Powell

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *