Key Takeaways
- Coinbase warns of mounting bearish pressure as Bitcoin and COIN50 dip below the 200-day moving average.
- The altcoin market has dropped 41% since the December 2024 peak.
- VC funding has dried up, falling as much as 60% from prior highs.
A new report from Coinbase paints a grim picture for the crypto market, warning that the industry may be heading into another crypto winter.
In its latest monthly outlook, the crypto exchange’s research team pointed to a major technical breakdown: Bitcoin and the COIN50 index have fallen below their 200-day moving averages—a bearish signal that has historically preceded deeper drawdowns.
The report also notes a steep 41% drop in altcoin prices and a significant decline in venture capital funding.
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Why the 200-Day Moving Average Matters
The 200-day moving average (200 DMA) is widely viewed as a key long-term trend indicator. When prices remain above that level, it tends to confirm a bullish trend. A breakdown below it, however, is often read as a harbinger of sustained weakness.
Coinbase researchers urged investors to take a more defensive posture.
“We think this warrants taking a defensive stance on risk for the time being, though we believe that crypto prices may find their floor in mid-to-late Q2 2025 – setting up a better Q3 2025,” the report said.
The firm noted that the same indicator flagged major downturns in the past—such as the 2018–2019 crypto winter, the pandemic-related crash in early 2020, and the mid-2021 pullback triggered by China’s mining ban.
It also preceded the broader market correction during the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2022 and 2023.
Altcoin Crash and Funding Freeze Add Pressure
Beyond Bitcoin, the rest of the crypto market is also under stress. Coinbase estimates that the altcoin sector has lost roughly $650 billion since peaking at $1.6 trillion in December 2024—down 41% as of mid-April.
Meanwhile, venture capital interest has dried up significantly. The report notes that funding is now down between 50% and 60% compared with 2021–2022 levels, reflecting investor hesitancy amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Coinbase flagged rising global tariffs and the specter of trade wars as new headwinds that could further weigh on risk assets, including crypto.
“Several converging signals may be pointing to the start of a new ‘crypto winter,’ as some extreme negative sentiment has set in due to the onset of global tariffs and the potential for further escalations,” the team wrote.
A Market in Search of a Catalyst
Despite some positive developments on the regulatory front, Coinbase emphasized that broader economic conditions continue to challenge recovery efforts.
With traditional markets also facing volatility, crypto’s path forward remains murky.
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