The NFL draft has become one of the biggest betting events on the sports calendar. With player overs/unders, exact-pick numbers, team positions, position totals and various other markets, there are plenty of ways to bet on the draft at ESPN BET.
For the bettor, the draft offers a unique opportunity to bet on something extremely difficult for sportsbooks to model. These odds typically are nowhere near as sharp as your typical betting lines for NFL games, with limits being significantly lower.
As a result, there can often be more value on betting the draft than most other markets. Here are some rules to follow for new bettors wagering on the NFL draft.
1. Follow the news
Nothing is more important to betting the draft than following and understanding draft-related news. Leading up to the draft, most odds moves are directly correlated with news from league insiders and mock drafts. For example, Adam Schefter saying he expects Cam Ward to be the No. 1 pick caused those odds to skyrocket last month.
Find reporters you trust, listen to what they have to say, and see if there are betting opportunities based on their reporting. Not everything is actionable, but many tidbits are, especially if multiple reporters are reporting the same thing. Just keep in mind that betting opportunities might not last long, as odds move very quickly. And if you are late, those reports have already been factored into the odds.
However, don’t take every internet rumor as gospel. One infamous example came in 2023 when Will Levis’ odds to go No. 1 moved from +4000 to +400 within hours of a Reddit post claiming Levis told friends and family he was going No. 1. When all was said and done, Levis wasn’t even taken in the first round.
One area where new draft bettors can possibly take advantage is in the “position of first draft pick” market for each team. If you are a diehard fan of a certain team, you are likely already following the news around your team, so this is a good introductory market to begin betting into.
2. Look for different ways to make the same bets with better odds
There are so many different markets for the NFL draft, there are often similar ways to make the same bet. For example, Mason Graham is -145 to be a top-5 pick, -135 to be the No. 5 pick, and the over/under on his draft position is 5.5, juiced -135 to the under. All three are similar bets, but the final of the three bets offers you the most ways to win at the best odds.
Plus, between line availability, line shopping and line movement, you can sometimes find ways to “middle” bets and give yourself a chance to win multiple bets without taking a lot of risk. If you take a player’s draft pick over 9.5 and you also bet that player to be a top-10 pick, you can win both bets if that player is drafted exactly 10th. Or you can make correlated bets at longer odds for bigger paydays.
3. “Galaxy brain” thinking is encouraged
Every pick that gets made in the NFL draft has a domino effect, especially unexpected picks. If you think the Giants take Shedeur Sanders at No. 3 (+500), then Abdul Carter (who is -270 to be picked at No. 3) is now available to be selected at No. 4 (with current odds of +600), and so on. It also could impact the quarterback market, as we saw last season with Bo Nix going earlier than expected after Michael Penix Jr. shockingly went eighth overall.
Sanders is -220 to be a top-10 pick, and the most likely team to draft him is the Saints (+100), but his odds to go ninth overall where the Saints currently pick are +220. That implies that while the Saints may be the favorites to take him, it might not necessarily be at No. 9.
Last season, J.J. McCarthy was in a similar position, as he was -1000 to go in the first round, but the team favored to draft him picked 11th (Minnesota Vikings). The Vikings traded up one pick to 10, cashing +3000 tickets for McCarthy to go exactly 10th.
While the Saints could draft Sanders, it doesn’t have to be at 9. Perhaps the Saints move up to the No. 8 pick to take him. Sanders is currently 15-1 to go No. 8. Trades often throw wrenches in draft betting and can create longshot value, but they are difficult to predict.
Since 2012, almost half of quarterbacks selected in the first round were acquired via trade with the majority of those trades happening on draft day.
4. Don’t be afraid to lay chalk
One great thing about betting the draft is that there are sure things, you just might not know about them. Cam Ward is -20,000 to go No. 1 overall, a price not that much shorter than the Boston Celtics’ odds to win their first-round series against the Orlando Magic (-6000). While the Magic could theoretically upset the Celtics, there is a chance the Titans have already made their decision to draft Ward.
While Ward’s odds are almost unbettable, Travis Hunter is -600 to go No. 2 as of this writing. That price may be intimidating, but if he goes No. 2 over 86% of the time, it’s a profitable bet, and there’s a chance that the real percentage should be 100%. The problem is that it’s impossible to know that information with certainty. Remember, a few weeks ago, Abdul Carter was the favorite to go No. 2.
Historically, the line moves in the 36 hours before the draft have typically been accurate, so while chasing steam is often a bad idea, it can pay off closer to draft time. However …
5. Stay within your bankroll
The dangerous part about the draft is that most of us do not have inside information. While we may be convinced teams should make a certain pick, most of us do not know they will. Remember, general managers make these draft picks, not you, and not reporters.
You may be convinced that a team should draft a certain player, but if the general manager doesn’t agree, it’s irrelevant.
So make sure not to overexpose yourself. As draft betting gets more popular, good information becomes less prevalent. Don’t bet money you aren’t willing to lose. You may think you know what will happen in the draft, but you probably don’t know for sure.
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