Internet Computer (ICP) is trading within a historically significant support range after likely completing a prolonged corrective cycle.
With key technical developments shown in both higher and lower timeframes, the current structure could define the next major directional move.
This analysis uses Elliott Wave structure and support dynamics to assess short-term corrective structures and upcoming price scenarios.
ICP Price Analysis
The 4-hour chart of ICP shows a prolonged decline from its December high near $15,50, forming a five-wave ABCDE correction to a low of $.5 on March 11.
The final wave (Y) terminated with a descending triangle as part of the corrective count from the March 2024 high of $21.
The green support zone between $4.80 and $5.20 has acted as a historical base and was previously the launch point of an impulsive wave in July 2023.
Wave labels suggest the correction may be complete, as we saw a breakout above the descending resistance to a high of $6.36 on March 26.
A downturn followed, reverting the price to its prior low, which could be interpreted as an attempt to form a double bottom before a new bull phase could begin.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has tested the oversold region and recovered but again found itself close to the 30% mark.
The broader trend remains bearish until proven otherwise.
The breakdown from the macro descending trendline from the $15.50 top indicates structural weakness, even if a relief rally is due.
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For a genuine trend reversal to be confirmed, ICP must reclaim the $7 level, a critical breakdown point earlier in the cycle.
With macro support intact and the RSI hinting at reversal potential, this area offers a high-stakes pivot between continued accumulation and a deeper capitulation phase.
ICP Price Prediction
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, ICP has recently completed a five-wave decline to $4.80, followed by a sharp rebound to the $6.40 region.
The rebound appears corrective and fits best within an ABC structure rather than an impulsive five-wave advance.
This hints that the current move is likely a relief rally rather than a new bull leg.
Wave (v) of the previous downtrend may have marked a short-term capitulation bottom, but the overlapping nature of the recovery waves (i.e., wave (ii) falling into wave (i)’s territory) invalidates an impulsive count.
The bounce is currently testing the 0.236 Fibonacci extension at $5.25. Resistance at $5.54 (0.5 retracement) will be the next inflection point if the price pushes higher, returning above the zone’s upper boundary.
The RSI on this timeframe remains below 50 but is climbing, suggesting short-term recovery potential.
However, should the price fail to push above $5.54, the likely scenario would be a continuation to the downside, potentially targeting $4.57 (0.786) and more likely $4.31 (1.0 Fibonacci extension of the recent move).
A lower low near $3.97 or even $3.60 cannot be ruled out unless ICP builds a sustained base above $5.25–$5.50.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $5.25 (0.236 Fib retracement).
- Secondary Resistance: $5.54 (0.5 Fib retracement).
- Major Resistance: $6.98 (macrostructure reclaim level).
- Immediate Support: $4.92 (0.5 retracement from recent move).
- Critical Support: $4.31 (1.0 Fib extension).
- Bearish Target: $3.97–$3.60 (1.272–1.618 extension zone).
- Invalidation: Break and hold above $5.54 confirms trend shift.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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