Key Takeaways
The Altcoin Market Cap did not reach a new all-time high this cycle, so the crypto market did not have an altseason.
Despite early signs pointing toward one at the beginning of 2025, the crypto market corrected instead of surging.
With ALTCAP falling over 40%, the chances for an alt season seemed grim. However, a 17% bounce has brought renewed optimism to the market.
So, let’s look at a few charts to see if an altcoin season is in the cards.
ALTCAP Bounces
The Altcoin market cap fell 44% after reaching a cycle high of $1.64 trillion in December 2024, culminating in a low of $923 billion in March 2025.
ALTCAP bounced afterward (green icon), confirming a 532-day ascending support trend line. While the prevention of the breakdown is a positive sign, ALTCAP has yet to initiate a significant rally.
Moreover, ALTCAP still trades below the $1.25 trillion horizontal resistance area, which is critical for the future trend.
In addition, technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell after its bearish divergence (orange) and is now below 50.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is also decreasing and just crossed below 0 (black circle).
So, the weekly time frame suggests the Altcoin market cap is bearish, diminishing the chances of a crypto altseason in 2025.
The daily time frame chart is more positive. It shows a completed five-wave downward movement contained inside a descending wedge pattern.
The bullish divergences in the RSI and MACD (orange) legitimize the breakout and suggest the rally will continue.
While the wave count indicates a bearish long-term trend, it also predicts a relief rally of at least 17% toward $1.27 trillion.
What About Bitcoin Dominance?
The Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) has increased inside an ascending parallel channel for 931 days. Even though such channels often contain corrections, the BTCD has maintained its upward trend.
In February, the channel’s resistance trend line rejected the BTCD (red icon). However, this did not cause a downward movement.
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Rather, BTCD trades above the channel’s midline and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level of 59.70%.
While the RSI and MACD have generated bearish divergences (orange), similar divergences have not played out repeatedly in the current cycle. So, the indicators cannot be confidently used to predict the future BTCD movement.
Therefore, BTCD could continue trading inside this channel, bouncing between the channel’s resistance and support trend line.
As long as BTCD trades in the channel’s upper portion and vice versa, an increase toward the resistance is likely.
2025 Altseason?
The crypto market has not had a proper altseason this cycle. While the ALTCAP shows bearish long-term signs, it also suggests a short-term rally could happen.
The BTCD readings align with a diminished altseason since they suggest the price will continue trading inside its existing pattern.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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