Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of concluding its corrective wave within a descending channel. The higher time frame suggests the completion of wave (4) in a broader five-wave structure.
The lower time frame reveals a developing breakout attempt, which could either confirm a bullish reversal or lead to another leg lower before the next impulsive wave begins.
BTC Price Analysis
Bitcoin has been correcting within a descending channel after reaching a cycle high of $108,000, marking the completion of wave (3).
The price has recently bounced from the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $80,292, signaling potentially the end of wave (4).
Historically, wave (4) corrections tend to hold between 0.382 and 0.5, making $73,809 a critical support zone.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral territory, showing neither strong bullish nor bearish momentum.
However, if BTC successfully breaks above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $86,774, it could confirm the start of wave (5), targeting new highs.
Key resistance areas include $94,795 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement) and the previous all-time high zone of $107,760.
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Should BTC fail to hold $80,292, a deeper retracement to the 0.618 level at $73,809 before the next bullish leg remains possible.
The bullish scenario would be invalidated if the price falls below $64,580, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
BTC Price Prediction
The 1-hour chart shows Bitcoin attempting a breakout from the descending channel, with wave (i) of a new impulsive structure potentially forming.
However, BTC is currently near testing resistance at the lower trendline, and a rejection could lead to a wave (ii) retracement before wave (iii) accelerates toward higher levels.
For the bullish scenario to hold, BTC must break above $86,774, confirming a shift in momentum. If wave (iii) extends, it could push toward the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $94,795, with the next major target near $100,000.
However, if BTC fails to maintain its breakout attempt, a wave (ii) retracement to $80,292 remains likely, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement from the higher time frame.
A sustained move below $80,292 would expose BTC to deeper downside risks, potentially retesting $73,809 before any bullish continuation.
On the other hand, a confirmed move above $94,795 would significantly strengthen the bullish outlook, setting the stage for a wave (v) push toward the all-time high.
If BTC maintains its higher low structure, it could confirm the start of wave (5), positioning it for a new price discovery phase.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $86,774 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
- Key Resistance: $94,795 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement).
- Critical Resistance: $107,760 (all-time high).
- Immediate Support: $80,292 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
- Key Support: $73,809 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
- Bullish Target: Above $100,000 if wave (iii) extends.
- Invalidation Zone: Below $64,580, negating the bullish structure.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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